Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that split the country and triggered turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the political, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly split population where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in universities but hardly any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. They composes two essays that strive for objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and social data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions range over national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent official who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will eventually lose but each side has got valuable insights to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
